Were Reed Richards' calculations wrong?

[keilthetarheel]

Reed's only miscalculation was in underestimating the stupidity of marvel writers

[mikekerr3]

Originally Posted by Monty_Cristo

is it stupid? if the heroes weren't opposing him wouldn't Norman be getting things done? somewhere in that head of his Norman wants to be a hero. even Bullseye has noticed this. he's crazy because of his opposition. he might do alright if properly medicated.

But the things he would be getting done include the murder or imprisonment of anyone who stands in his way, and the murder of random civilians.

[xheight]

Originally Posted by The Master Meglomaniac

And the best person to register them is a psychopathic murderer? That makes no sense.



And is anyone saying they should be in charge of the SHRA?

Did either of those two kill a police captain's daughter? Because anyone in the Marvel universe who who have any sense would realize the kind of guy who murders people like Gwen Stacy should not be in charge. The fact that almost no one seems to have a problem with that proves they are idiots.

And yet Ted Kennedy was re-elected to office how many times after Chappaquiddick?

[The Master Meglomaniac]

Originally Posted by xheight

And yet Ted Kennedy was re-elected to office how many times after Chappaquiddick?

Osborn has much more power then Kennedy ever did.

Also did Ted Kennedy also take a bunch of hostages in a church and threatened to kill them unless his nemesis gutted himself on TV?

[xheight]

Originally Posted by The Master Meglomaniac

Osborn has much more power then Kennedy ever did.

Also did Ted Kennedy also take a bunch of hostages in a church and threatened to kill them unless his nemesis gutted himself on TV?

That much seniority on the senate comes pretty close. Didn't he pretty much gut Bork? Osborn on the other hand just might live after his reign.

Reed, as it has been shown of late, still thinks that science can predict just that science's effect can be greater. The sequence of erasing the white room was far more effective and in character than the drawn out Iron Man arc.

[mikekerr3]

Originally Posted by Gadget3440

Has no one read Asimov's Foundation saga?? All this talk of predicting futures is pretty much straight out of that, and Reed is no Hari Seldon. Arguably Osborn's not the wildcard, rather it's the Skrulls

Asimov dismissed that concept as silliness not very long after the books came out. It was a fairly silly concept when it came out and is just stupid now.

[xheight]

Originally Posted by mikekerr3

Asimov dismissed that concept as silliness not very long after the books came out. It was a fairly silly concept when it came out and is just stupid now.

Was that before or after orgs like RAND were born. It is silly in the individual level but probability science and computing power is freaky good. I don't see it being dismissed at all except by humanists.

[mikekerr3]

Originally Posted by xheight

Was that before or after orgs like RAND were born. It is silly in the individual level but probability science and computing power is freaky good. I don't see it being dismissed at all except by humanists.

Science is showing more and more the limits of predictability in the universe.

Actually you will find it dismissed by just about everyone in the science community, Getting results requires having all the data necessary for the result to be calculated ,which is all the data there is, then it requires enough computing power to integrate all that data before any significant change can happen.

It must do all that before there is a significant change in the data. and that's in small fractions of a nanosecond (a Planck time (~ 5.4 × 10−44 seconds) unit ) . After that quantum random effects will make your data obsolete and then you have to try again

Probability science cannot forecast precisely in can only state the likelihood of an event . Even for a subset of the data as small as the human race and things that can affect the human race, both the knowledge requirements and the processing requiems are godlike. Even the stuff that the guys preaching the singularity are predicting isn't in that league.

A predictable universe was a concept created by Newton and one utterly destroyed by Heisenberg and friends in the early 20th century, You can't even tell if the cat alive much less the results in a system that complex

The state of mind, intentions and capabilities of every human being who could change the situation would have to be known, since even insignificant people like low level biologists and patent clerks and failed painters have been known to radically a and rapidly change the human condition for both good and evil. You would also have to do second through sixth (at least according to network theory) level calculations on the possible interrelations of all those people. That’ a really big number, at least 7 billion to the (sixth to the sixth about 46K) power.

The funniest part is that the driving premise of his hypothesis (since it's can't be experimentally proven it’s not a scientific theory) is faulty, He said that the upcoming disaster would be caused bu the greatly increasing number of Meta-humans in the MU. That number was a tiny fraction of what it had been not very long before the CW, it would be surprising if the remaining meta's were 1% of the former population

I think it was just Marvel’s writers not knowing enough math or science to know any better. After all they have a guy using "smallest possible amount bands" for power

[Gadget3440]

Originally Posted by mikekerr3

Asimov dismissed that concept as silliness not very long after the books came out. It was a fairly silly concept when it came out and is just stupid now.

I agree it's a flawed concept due to the mutlitude of unknown factors, but the concept applies to the topic in the comics. It's all part and parcel of Reed becoming this hyper intelligent being where very few problems are beyond his capabilities of solving.

It seems to me that Reed's on the path to villainy and the sooner it's accepted the better. Just an opinion but the Doom/Richards dynamic would become much more interesting as would the MU.

[XPac]

Originally Posted by Gadget3440

I agree it's a flawed concept due to the mutlitude of unknown factors, but the concept applies to the topic in the comics. It's all part and parcel of Reed becoming this hyper intelligent being where very few problems are beyond his capabilities of solving.

It seems to me that Reed's on the path to villainy and the sooner it's accepted the better. Just an opinion but the Doom/Richards dynamic would become much more interesting as would the MU.

I definately think Reed going to far would make for an interesting story. I don't think he should ever completely or permanently turn into a villain... but Tony crossing the line to the point where it has real consequences and they can't just overlook it in the very next issue I think would make for an interesting story.

But writers usually pull him back before he crosses the brink... which of course is entirely understandable. But I do sometimes wish they'd just pull the trigger and let Reed cut loose. He'd be one scary scary dude.

[mikekerr3]

Originally Posted by Gadget3440

I agree it's a flawed concept due to the mutlitude of unknown factors, but the concept applies to the topic in the comics. It's all part and parcel of Reed becoming this hyper intelligent being where very few problems are beyond his capabilities of solving.

It seems to me that Reed's on the path to villainy and the sooner it's accepted the better. Just an opinion but the Doom/Richards dynamic would become much more interesting as would the MU.

the problem is not unknown factors, the problems are the huge number of factorsa nd relationships, there are thousands of zeros (50,000 to be more precise) in that number, and the fact that many of the factors are not just unknown they are unknowable.Just like the health of the German guys cat.

Reeds walls are too small to handle writing down the number of factors much less being used to calculate anything with them.