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  1. #166
    Loading cactusmaac's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Iangould View Post
    No. Romney SHOULD have won by a landslide based on the state of the economy.

    At least one well-respected (until now) economic model predicted that Obama would lose heavily.
    I say thee nay!

    More Evidence that Obama's Victory Reflects the Economic Fundamentals (Patrick Egan, 11/08/12, NY Times)

    http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/1...Monkey+Cage%29

    By September, the fundamentals had improved enough to make Obama a slight favorite. The figure below plots the incumbent party's share of the two-party presidential vote against the average growth rate in the nation's GDP over the three quarters preceding the election. Separate regression lines trace the relationship for years when an incumbent was actually on the ballot (like 2012) and those when he was not (like 2008). (The steeper slope of the first line indicates that the economy affects election results more strongly when the president is actually running for reelection; the fact that it lies above the second line illustrates the advantage enjoyed by incumbents.)



    The growth rate between January and September of 2012 averaged 1.8 percent. As shown in the figure, this yielded a predicted share of 51.2 percent of the two-party vote for incumbent Obama. How well did this forecast the actual outcome? Right now (as of noon on November 8th) the popular vote totals stand at 60,771,081 for Obama and 57,876,223 for Romney--exactly 51.2 percent for the incumbent.
    The two most powerful warriors are patience and time - Leo Tolstoy

  2. #167
    disMember svp's Avatar
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    I'm so glad Mitt lost.

  3. #168

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    Quote Originally Posted by cactusmaac View Post
    I say thee nay!

    More Evidence that Obama's Victory Reflects the Economic Fundamentals (Patrick Egan, 11/08/12, NY Times)

    http://themonkeycage.org/blog/2012/1...Monkey+Cage%29

    By September, the fundamentals had improved enough to make Obama a slight favorite. The figure below plots the incumbent party's share of the two-party presidential vote against the average growth rate in the nation's GDP over the three quarters preceding the election. Separate regression lines trace the relationship for years when an incumbent was actually on the ballot (like 2012) and those when he was not (like 2008). (The steeper slope of the first line indicates that the economy affects election results more strongly when the president is actually running for reelection; the fact that it lies above the second line illustrates the advantage enjoyed by incumbents.)



    The growth rate between January and September of 2012 averaged 1.8 percent. As shown in the figure, this yielded a predicted share of 51.2 percent of the two-party vote for incumbent Obama. How well did this forecast the actual outcome? Right now (as of noon on November 8th) the popular vote totals stand at 60,771,081 for Obama and 57,876,223 for Romney--exactly 51.2 percent for the incumbent.
    There's a university in Iowa that has correctly predicted the outcome of every eelection since 1980 based on a purely economic model - until now. I need to go to work now, I'll look for the detaisl later.

    I'd be a lot impressed by Egan's post if he'd made it a week ago.
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  4. #169
    The Professional marvell2100's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Soapdish View Post
    I know, but you said Meg Ryan.

    You should add Linda McMahon to your list. And Rick Scott except that it did work for him.
    I was thinking about McMahon as well. I guess they thought money alone was enough. Thinking that just because you're a CEO means you know how to create jobs is a little pretentious.
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  5. #170
    The Professional marvell2100's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 7thangel View Post
    that is why i didn't bother listing achievements or even posting a link to the long list. it was obvious that it was going to be a wasted effort.

    and it's funny how much pearls are being clutched claiming big mean Obama was being mean. how dare he attack Romney, his record and his vague plan. even funnier knowing that it's now an accepted meme in that right wing bubble.

    Somebody should have given her a drug and alcohol test. She looked blitzed and she was babbling alot of nonsense.
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  6. #171
    Senior Member Toreador's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by marvell2100 View Post
    Somebody should have given her a drug and alcohol test. She looked blitzed and she was babbling alot of nonsense.
    She spent too much time with Carville recruiting for the Cocktail Party.
    In search of Claire...or Libby Hoeler :D

    "What is illness to the body of a knight-errant? What matter wounds? For each time he falls, he shall rise again, and woe to the wicked.
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  7. #172
    Too late Nick Soapdish's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dupont2005 View Post
    All these Republicans just kind of blend together to me.
    I don't think she's a Republican. She's just an actress and doesn't seem to have been vocal either way.

  8. #173
    Too late Nick Soapdish's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Toreador View Post
    She spent too much time with Carville recruiting for the Cocktail Party.
    God, they should both be shot for those ads. Or on general principle.

  9. #174
    Duck Dude Donald M.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cactusmaac View Post
    Yes,, stunning endorsement.
    Jeez, whiny much? So the American people are stupid because they didn't vote in the guy you like? I think we can live with your derision, random internet dude.

  10. #175
    Senior Member Deadman25's Avatar
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    THe whole change regarding where you no longer need a Goverment Photo ID to vote in some states, kinda answers the question of why Romney lost.

  11. #176
    Hardcover addict dupont2005's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nick Soapdish View Post
    I don't think she's a Republican. She's just an actress and doesn't seem to have been vocal either way.
    Wasn't she running under the Republican ticket?
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  12. #177
    for the lulz 7thangel's Avatar
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    lmao.

    yes, the new laws they attempted to introduce on the eve of elections is why Etch-A-Sketch Mitt is on peoples ignore and blocked call lists instead of measure the WH drapes.

  13. #178
    for the lulz 7thangel's Avatar
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    this blog post has been making the rounds around the 'net

    Letter to a future Republican strategist regarding white people

  14. #179
    Elder Member Wjowski's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Deadman25 View Post
    THe whole change regarding where you no longer need a Goverment Photo ID to vote in some states, kinda answers the question of why Romney lost.
    I'm sure the Republicans going from a political party that once represented fiscal responsibility to a creepy, repulsive cult of racist old white men had nothing to do with it.

  15. #180
    Too late Nick Soapdish's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by dupont2005 View Post
    Wasn't she running under the Republican ticket?
    Meg Ryan? Running for what? But Meg Whitman is a Republican.

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