Will "The Dark Knight Rises" Defeat "The Avengers'" Opening Weekend?

**CBR News** · 07-19-2012, 10:15 AM

"The Dark Knight Rises" has already earned $25 million in advance ticket sales, but can Christopher Nolan's final Batman film unhorse the opening weekend record of Joss Whedon's "The Avengers?"

Full article here.

**AndItsOn!** · 07-19-2012, 11:38 AM

Well, I think the answer is fairly easy: "Will "The Dark Knight Rises" Defeat "The Avengers'" Opening Weekend?", remove "will" and question mark, you have the answer.

**BizzleTheBear** · 07-19-2012, 11:51 AM

Oh God who gives a shit? Like who really does? Go see the movie and enjoy it. If it does or doesn't will it make you enjoy or hate it more? Everyone needs to get a life and start loving and having more sex.

**the goddamn batman** · 07-19-2012, 11:53 AM

Deadline reports the recent Viacom/DirecTV battle has prevented a number of "The Dark Knight Rises" ads from airing in certain markets.

really? weird... wonder why?

**Zoidberg, M.D.** · 07-19-2012, 11:57 AM

It will probably sell more tickets, but without 3D I think it's unlikely it will make more money.

A 3D ticket costs 3 or 4 extra dollars, on average, and almost half of The Avengers tickets were in 3D. That's a lot of extra money when talking about +20millions tickets sold.

**Alex** · 07-19-2012, 11:59 AM

I am going to guess no.

**the goddamn batman** · 07-19-2012, 12:15 PM

Originally Posted by Zoidberg, M.D.

It will probably sell more tickets, but without 3D I think it's unlikely it will make more money.

A 3D ticket costs 3 or 4 extra dollars, on average, and almost half of The Avengers tickets were in 3D. That's a lot of extra money when talking about +20millions tickets sold.

IMAX, real IMAX, is also 3-4 dollars more expensive, at least. the actual thing that will hold it back, or make it take longer is the longer run time.

**jesse_custer** · 07-19-2012, 12:28 PM

I don't think running time matters anymore. It is clear mainstream audiences are extremely willing to subject themselves to poorly edited movies, over and over and over again.

**Superleo** · 07-19-2012, 12:45 PM

Originally Posted by BizzleTheBear

Oh God who gives a shit? Like who really does? Go see the movie and enjoy it. If it does or doesn't will it make you enjoy or hate it more? Everyone needs to get a life and start loving and having more sex.

have you seen the threads in this forum?
should ____ ____ do _______ because ______ ?

yeah that shit aint gonna happen

**Greengo** · 07-19-2012, 01:04 PM

Originally Posted by the goddamn batman

IMAX, real IMAX, is also 3-4 dollars more expensive, at least. the actual thing that will hold it back, or make it take longer is the longer run time.

It is also opening in more theatres than Avengers, which kinda eliminates the "3D" thing to a degree and TDKR is on a new record amount of IMAX screens. So it's not like it's handicapped. The advertising thing is a non-issue. The previous movie is all the advertising this movie needed.

**cookepuss** · 07-19-2012, 01:05 PM

I'm going out on a limb here, but let's just assume that the TDKR performs as well as the Jokerific TDK. Worldwide, TDK only took in about $1B and it was a massive phenomena in 2008. Even with inflation and the fact that TDKR is opening in 38 more theaters, it'd only take in about $75M more worldwide by the end. Again, this is assuming that it keeps pace with 2008's TDK. Right now, Rotten Tomatoes has TDKR at 87% positive reviews compared to TDK's 94%. Were I a betting man, I'd have money on TDKR starting out marginally stronger than TDK, but burning out quicker. When all is said and done, I think that it'll top out at $1B worldwide, but only just.

For me, TDKR is facing a few challenges.

1. It's the 3rd movie in a series. Not saying that all 3rd movies are bad. In fact, some can be pretty great. I loved Back to the Future 3 and Nightmare on Elm Street 3. Both great #3s. However, they tend to be the exception instead of the rule. Even if the actual movie is awesome, it's still not smooth sailing. Why?

2. Bane. Pretend you're not a hardcore Batman nerd. Quick. Name Batman's Top 5 rogues. Joker. Penguin. Riddler. Catwoman. Uhm.... Now you're searching your brain for a 3rd, trying to remember who else you saw on Batman:TAS as a kid. Comic fans can remember Bane like nothing. Casual fans? Not so much. Remember, most of the people going to the movie are NOT comic fans. I'm not so sure that the trailers and commercials have sold Bane as a compelling villain to these non-fans. DC is selling us on the brand instead.

3. Casting. Maybe this one's just me. I still have problems envisioning Ann Hathaway as Selina Kyle or Catwoman. Maybe she works well in Nolan's vision. Then again, I'm not really convinced that she's a great actress either. At her very best, she's just been okay.

4. Marketing. Yeah. I'm back to this. Take Bane out of the equation this time. Again, maybe it's just me, but I didn't quite have the same nerdgasm watching the TDKR promos as when I first saw the ones for TDK. Maybe the story is deeper than a trailer can convey. I'll give you that. I won't deny that as a possibility. However, I wonder of I'm not alone in feeling that the promos lacked some major bite and pop to them. Could that affect the bottom line or will people just go to see it because Nolan promises that this is the end of the line to the story he's been telling? Hard to tell.

5. Burnout. By the time we get to a 3rd movie, it's not just the creators who burn it. Sometimes, it's also the fans. The formula becomes predictable to them, even to the point of it growing long in the tooth. Sometimes, the fans grow tired of the main actors and their supporting cast, thanks in part to those 3 movie deal contracts. By the 3rd movie, the fans have already grown too accustomed to the visual style too. Let's face it. Nolan's signature visual style is so uniquely him that it borders on being Tim Burton-esque in terms of what we can expect on film. That's a hurdle for the fans too, overcoming a familiar style. Even if fans aren't burnt out, the expectation of newer and bigger things almost becomes outrageously unreasonable. Can a 3rd movie deliver on those nerdy wet dreams?

I'm not going to lie to you. At the movies, I'm much more of a Marvel guy than a DC one. That said, I loved TDK and thought that Batman Begins was okay. I don't think that either film did the source material justice. The casting was off, there were loose ends galore, and maybe being grounded more in reality kept the films from being all they could be. Still.... I liked them. No doubt about it.

I have high hopes for TDKR. I don't expect it to be as great as TDK, but I think that it will definitely be more enjoyable than Batman Begins. Do I think that it'll kill Avengers? On the opening weekend? Maybe. On the worldwide final tally? Doubtful. VERY doubtful. Avengers is at nearly $1.5B right now. That's too big of a hurdle for Nolan's film.

**cookepuss** · 07-19-2012, 01:07 PM

Originally Posted by Greengo

It is also opening in more theatres than Avengers, which kinda eliminates the "3D" thing to a degree

It's only opening by 55 theaters more. That's barely anything.

**Lord Bravery** · 07-19-2012, 01:13 PM

I think it'll fall just short. IMAX and 3D tickets may be the same price, but 3D screens are simply more common. There is more of them. I don't see it being physically possible for TDKR to make more than 207 million dollars without the 3D. Could be wrong though. Either way, whatever it makes will be silly money.