The DC Numbers/Estimates Mega Thread

[Ari Gold]

So what will be the next titles to get the axe? Looks like Voodoo, Firestorm and the other low selling titles are on the chopping block. Also the drop from Flash #1 to #7 is that typical for a comic to loose half it's pre orders in 7 months? I'm not a sales expert or anything but to loose over half your pre orders in that time frame in any other industry would be alarming.

Yeah, it's pretty standard in the industry.

I believe a title typically loses 40% of it's readers from issue #1 to #6, and 60% by the time it reaches #12.

Scott McDaniels wrote about it recently in his rant against John Rozum. Says he's studied it for years and nearly without fail that's the track every comic book follows.

[SpideyCzar]

Yeah, it's pretty standard in the industry.

I believe a title typically loses 40% of it's readers from issue #1 to #6, and 60% by the time it reaches #12.

Scott McDaniels wrote about it recently in his rant against John Rozum. Says he's studied it for years and nearly without fail that's the track every comic book follows.

That is insane. I wonder if that's more on the comics quality? Prices? Or the fickle nature of fans?

[Ari Gold]

That is insane. I wonder if that's more on the comics quality? Prices? Or the fickle nature of fans?

Yeah, here's the link where McDaniel's discusses it - http://www.scottmcdaniel.net/intervi...ATICSHOCK.html

You see, I love math and numbers and graphs, and I have been collecting and reviewing those Diamond Sales Estimate reports for YEARS. For FUN. I'm telling you - I'm a total NERD.

I've noticed a simple pattern in the sales orders for titles after their debut. I think this is pretty commonly known. The #1 issue sales (the debut) will be its highest value, then subsequent issue #'s orders cool off rapidly until settling softly into a steady-state value. Like a cup of hot water cooling to room temperature. Some titles start much hotter others, and some titles cool faster than others, but the overall trend actually follows Newton's Law of Cooling pretty well. I've done least-squares regressions of the data and it's true (I know, I know... NERD ALERT!).

Here's the general pattern (CAUTION: ballpark percentages ONLY!!):


•By around issue #4-5, the sales have cooled to about 60% of #1 sales.
•By around the end of the first year, the sales have settled to about 40% of #1 sales.
Again, these percentages will be a bit different for the different books, but the OVERALL trends are pretty comparable. I have some graphs that make this point visually in a moment (!! NERD ALERT !!).

But first, here are two examples from many that show this cooling pattern in action (as .doc files):

John's XOMBI Sales Chart
2009 BATMAN & ROBIN Sales Chart
As you can see, the pattern is generally followed, regardless of how "cold" or how "hot" #1 sales are.

And here's an example he brought from 2009 Batman and Robin - http://www.scottmcdaniel.net/intervi.../BnR-sales.doc


And here are some examples I pulled randomly:
Superman #5 (-37.72%)
JL International #5 (-39.37%)
WatX-Men #5 (-41.80%)
Ult. Spider-Man #5 (-44.62%)

[SpideyCzar]

Yeah, here's the link where McDaniel's discusses it - http://www.scottmcdaniel.net/intervi...ATICSHOCK.html


And here's an example he brought from 2009 Batman and Robin - http://www.scottmcdaniel.net/intervi.../BnR-sales.doc


And here are some examples I pulled randomly:
Superman #5 (-37.72%)
JL International #5 (-39.37%)
WatX-Men #5 (-41.80%)
Ult. Spider-Man #5 (-44.62%)

Scott's a great guy I recently got a Spidey commission from him. Check it out in my signature. Back to the topic, I'm really curious to know why the pre orders drop so drastically for such a short period of time? Fans complain about relaunches and renumberings but if all the fans buy is #1's they really have no reason to complain if they can't stick with a title for longer than 2 issues.

[CagedLeo730]

That is insane. I wonder if that's more on the comics quality? Prices? Or the fickle nature of fans?

Fans are as fickle as ever in the ADD/Instant gratification generation. Prices affect sales only so much as people have money (economy doing well). $3.99 books still sell well, even better than $2.99 because of characters involved. Perceived story quality plays into this as well.

[CagedLeo730]

I guess my question is what, if any, lessons can comics take from games?

Story ideas. That's it. It's impossible to take more than that across media. The gaming industry and comics have a stigma, but gaming makes so much more money. There's no controller in comics. A comic can't last for hours on end.

[BrotherUnitNo_4]

Scott's a great guy I recently got a Spidey commission from him. Check it out in my signature. Back to the topic, I'm really curious to know why the pre orders drop so drastically for such a short period of time? Fans complain about relaunches and renumberings but if all the fans buy is #1's they really have no reason to complain if they can't stick with a title for longer than 2 issues.

It's not that fans actually buy that many issue #1s (in general). It's just retailer speculation for what they know they can sell and what they hope they can sell based on the mix of characters and creators. Only problem is it seems not as many readers actually a) know or b) care about the relaunched books.

[Reginleif]

So, I was looking through the numbers Shaggy posted (thanks btw, must have been a lot of work! ), specifically titles that had creative team revamps, and it doesn't seem to matter. Voodoo, Superman, Green arrow etc still have a decline in sales despite some very public and advertised changes. So do creative changes really matter?

[paulski]

Pretty disappointing numbers in a lot of cases there (thanks to Shaggy for the data), but nice to see that I, Vampire was one of the two books (with Suicide Squad) to increase its sales for #7. I'd say it's pretty safe at least in the short-term based on that.

[SpideyCzar]

Pretty disappointing numbers in a lot of cases there (thanks to Shaggy for the data), but nice to see that I, Vampire was one of the two books (with Suicide Squad) to increase its sales for #7. I'd say it's pretty safe at least in the short-term based on that.

Heard good things about I, Vampire what's the premise? I may try it out.

[CagedLeo730]

Heard good things about I, Vampire what's the premise? I may try it out.

It's about a vampire with a conscience (Andrew Bennett). He's not the Angel type. He was never evil. So he turned the woman he loved (Mary) and she became totally evil. He still loved her and somehow led her to agree to not go all vampire on the rest of the world. Forward to present day, when she gets tired of the "truce" and gathers other vampires to attain their real status (Top of the food chain). Now Andrew has to solve the problem he helped create. Basically, love & vampires in the DC Universe. No twilight BS. It's dark and violent. Issue 6 has a surprising ending that changes the initial direction of the story.

[Shadowcat2576]

So, I was looking through the numbers Shaggy posted (thanks btw, must have been a lot of work! ), specifically titles that had creative team revamps, and it doesn't seem to matter. Voodoo, Superman, Green arrow etc still have a decline in sales despite some very public and advertised changes. So do creative changes really matter?

While I think that some writers/artists do have fans that follow them from title to title, I think it's a comparatively small number. Your vast number of readers are buying a title for the character inside. They may notice that a title gets better or worse but not associate it with a change in creative teams. It may not be a popular opinion, but for most readers, the character is the important part. If I don't have at least some interest in the character, I'm not going to buy the title. I don't care who's writing it. Case in point, Peter David, I've loved everything I've read of his, X-Factor, Supergirl, Aquaman, etc... but I'm not going to read his Hulk work. I know it's praised, and I'm sure it's good, but I have no interest in the Hulk, no matter how well written it is. Also, a lot of readers are not going to assume that a change automatically improves a title, so even if a new creative team does improve the direction of a book, it's not going to draw new readers in immediately.

[glennsim]

While I think that some writers/artists do have fans that follow them from title to title, I think it's a comparatively small number. Your vast number of readers are buying a title for the character inside. They may notice that a title gets better or worse but not associate it with a change in creative teams. It may not be a popular opinion, but for most readers, the character is the important part. If I don't have at least some interest in the character, I'm not going to buy the title. I don't care who's writing it. Case in point, Peter David, I've loved everything I've read of his, X-Factor, Supergirl, Aquaman, etc... but I'm not going to read his Hulk work. I know it's praised, and I'm sure it's good, but I have no interest in the Hulk, no matter how well written it is. Also, a lot of readers are not going to assume that a change automatically improves a title, so even if a new creative team does improve the direction of a book, it's not going to draw new readers in immediately.

Yet when someone ran a "do you read for characters or do you read for creators" poll around here, it seemed to run pretty much 50/50. So I do think there is a tremendous number of people who do follow creators.

I think the reason a change in creatives doesn't (always) lead to a surge in sales is because the new creatives might not be popular enough to change the numbers. After all, the new writer has to have more fans than the old writer did. Plus there's still going to be people who just drop the book either way, because they don't like the way it's going overall.

[Shadowcat2576]

Yet when someone ran a "do you read for characters or do you read for creators" poll around here, it seemed to run pretty much 50/50. So I do think there is a tremendous number of people who do follow creators.

I think the reason a change in creatives doesn't (always) lead to a surge in sales is because the new creatives might not be popular enough to change the numbers. After all, the new writer has to have more fans than the old writer did. Plus there's still going to be people who just drop the book either way, because they don't like the way it's going overall.

Keep in mind though that was a poll conducted on a site devoted to comicbook news, where people have a better than average chance of knowing who the creative team of a given comic is. I've read and collected comics for over 25 years and only recently started to care at all about who's working on a title, and that's mainly in terms of finding older series I want to collect. Most average readers buy the titles they're familar with. It's why Batman Dark Knight has such high sales despite being one of the more lackluster books of the New 52.

[Mat001]

Story ideas. That's it. It's impossible to take more than that across media. The gaming industry and comics have a stigma, but gaming makes so much more money. There's no controller in comics. A comic can't last for hours on end.

Exactly. A "Final Fantasy" came can be done in say twenty to thirty hours, but the upper limit is seventy hours. And that depends on which game you play and if you really want to get every last detail. As to price to pay for it, even the big three (Nintendo, Sony and Mircosoft) are not immune to it. Ever since cheap app games like "Farmville" and "Angry Birds" made their debut, they've been ranking in money hand over fist. The former is free to play online, but you have to pay to expand your farm and add all kinds of stuff. The latter, I believe, is free. There are also other games that cost 99 cents to five dollars to download and play on your tablet, smart phone or laptop.