All-purpose news and politics thread

[mikekerrIII]

same here....that probably took away a healthy chunk of support

What votes is he going to lose that is not already going to vote for the other side?

[Paradox]

Exactly my thought...how many anti-gay marriage Obama supporters does he think are out there?

[Nick Soapdish]

I don't think adjusting for inflation would make a huge difference. Data isn't available for that in any case.

But here's the graph rebased to 2002 which gives a better picture of what happened.

It is available. It's just a pain to get.

In Italy, inflation has gone so that $1000 in 2002 would be worth $1220 in 2010. (I couldn't find 2011.) Meanwhile, their population went up from about 57 million to 60 million, which is about a 5% increase in population. Their spending went slightly above the inflation rate, but amounts to about a 4% cut per capita.

In the UK, it would've been $1000 in 2003 getting $1289 in 2012, well behind effective $1680 that it looks like on that chart. But starting in 2008 when the economy started to really turn south, that $1600 in 2008 would've needed to hit $1827 in 2011. That's nearly a 10% cut although it doesn't factor in any population growth or loss.

[Dreadstar]

Exactly my thought...how many anti-gay marriage Obama supporters does he think are out there?

Oddly, back when Ohio voted for their version of the DoMA, it was pretty easy to show mathematically that there had to be people who voted for Democratic candidates and the DoMA. The difference in margins was substantial.

[Dreadstar]

And, as someone suggested earlier re the California version, certain groups that would be likely to vote Obama might also have anti-gay mindsets. I wouldn't know one way or the other in that particular case, just posing conjecture.

[Slam_Bradley]

The implication seems to be that Obama is not politically astute enough that he issued the statement without thinking about how it would effect the election and particularly swing states. I find that implication incredibly naive.

[Nick Soapdish]

The implication seems to be that Obama is not politically astute enough that he issued the statement without thinking about how it would effect the election and particularly swing states. I find that implication incredibly naive.

I'm pretty sure he knows the implications and it could cost him swing states like North Carolina (home of the Democratic National Convention even). But the fence was getting too uncomfortable.

It might also distract Romney from crowing about how he saved the auto industry and would be creating 500,000 jobs a month. If so, we might wind up seeing the Democrats using gay marriage as a distraction issue from politics or war.

[Vibranium]

And, as someone suggested earlier re the California version, certain groups that would be likely to vote Obama might also have anti-gay mindsets. I wouldn't know one way or the other in that particular case, just posing conjecture.

DO have

the black and latino communities are notoriously anti gay anything...period

they tolerate it, thats really about it

[the4thpip]

You know something big happened in LGBT rights politics when my ex in Atlanta leaves a message on my answering machine.

[the4thpip]

Romney Reacts: I'm Still Completely Against Any Relationship Rights For Gays

[JCAll]

same here....that probably took away a healthy chunk of support

Given what he's up against, I imagine the President feels bulletproof at this point.

[Lancerman]

This was a game changer. Not really sure how this will play out. It's definitly a decisive enough issue where it could cost him votes. If you support gay marriage and you were going to vote Republican before this I don't see that changing much becuase you already know what your getting with that party. But Democrats who oppose it might turn on Obama. Especially if Romney makes this a election a gay marriage thing. It considerably helped Bush agianst Kerry in 2004. Also just looking at headlines, this really hurt any plays Obama may have by calling Romney a flip flopper when he just did it in spectacular fashion. They are going to grill him on this. If don't see how he gains any votes from this. It's kind of puzzling to me. If gay rights were a primary issue for you then you were already voting Obama. Maybe he was worried that that base was getting apathetic towars him. Gonna be an interesting next few days.

[Lancerman]

DO have

the black and latino communities are notoriously anti gay anything...period

they tolerate it, thats really about it

Prop 8 was largely passed because those groups came out for Obama. If California ever went into play...

[the4thpip]

People that weren't gonna vote for Homobama are gonna vote for him even less now, ZOMG!

[Lancerman]

People that weren't gonna vote for Homobama are gonna vote for him even less now, ZOMG!

He definitly has (or had) voters that were agianst gay marriage. He's losing something. How significant it is time will tell.