NASA Reports 10 Years to Climate "Tipping Point"

[Dry Observer]

*
As noted by ABC News, NASA's latest report on global warming says:

Even "moderate additional" greenhouse emissions are likely to push Earth past "critical tipping points" with "dangerous consequences for the planet," according to research conducted by NASA and the Columbia University Earth Institute.

With just 10 more years of "business as usual" emissions from the burning of coal, oil and gas, says the NASA/Columbia paper, "it becomes impractical" to avoid "disastrous effects."

Hearing this kind of report from NASA is particularly telling. The study's lead author is James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York. And when that agency starts talking this gravely about global warming, despite the considerable hostility towards such discussions evidenced in the present Administration, we have reason to believe it is out of a sense of terrible urgency.

NASA forecasts effects including "increasingly rapid sea-level rise, increased frequency of droughts and floods, and increased stress on wildlife and plants due to rapidly shifting climate zones." But don't break out the champaigne yet, there's a few real problems on the way. And yes, NASA's take on this issue makes the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report look carefree and jovial by comparison. They are talking bluntly about "strong amplifying feedbacks" driving Earth past "dangerous tipping points."

Scientists have been warning for several years that such tipping points are the greatest threat from manmade global warming — and what makes it potentially catastrophic for civilization.

As the tipping points pass, "there is an acceleration, potentially uncontrollable, of emissions of vast natural stores of greenhouse gas," according to Hansen, who reviewed the study for ABC News today.

Hansen explains that dangerous feedback loops are being tracked in various regions of the planet.

Many studies have reported feedback loops already observed in thawing tundra, seabeds and drying forests.

The article goes into further issues -- the disappearance of ice and snow that reflect sunlight back into space, the release of carbon from our thawing tundras, etc. And finally...

The study says that "only moderate additional climate forcing (which would mean only moderate additional warming from such emissions) is likely to set in motion the disintegration of the West Antarctic ice sheet" — dubbed WAIS by polar scientists.

Many scientists say a disintegration of WAIS would mean catastrophically rapid sea-level rise.

Normally I would close on some ideas aimed at solving the problem in question. Today, though, I just wanted to get the word out and let others reflect on its urgency. So in closing, good night and good luck.

Soc
Future Imperative

[BnL]

Goddammit.

[the4thpip]

Ah, but Al Gore has a big house, so Global Warming is just a theory. :rolleyes:

[Buzz Dixon]

And then there's this...

http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/sto...3229696&page=1

BTW, a question I has asked repeatedly but no one has ever answered is "Exactly how warm is the planet supposed to be?" Europe was under a mile thick glacier about 100,000 years ago; 65 million years ago the planet was hot enough for dinosaurs and flowering plants north of the arctic circle (and, yes, this is taking continental drift into consideration). Which is the correct temperature?

And if humans are warming up the Earth, explain please why Mars and Jupiter seem to be warming up at a similar rate.

[Charles RB]

When NASA says "business as usual" emissions, is it including current and ongoing plans by nations (including the European Union) to lower national carbon emissions and saying all this will happen despite those plans & measures?

Because if it is - fuck. :(

BTW, a question I has asked repeatedly but no one has ever answered is "Exactly how warm is the planet supposed to be?"

It's a big ball of dirt floating around in space with no sentient mind and a history of mass extinctions - it's not supposed to be anything.

The important question is "exactly how warm is the planet supposed to be for humans to survive". We currently have a big, globally-connected civilisation designed around an ecological status quo; what happens to that when the major port cities, financial centres and centres of government on many nations get flooded out?

Hell, in my own lifetime I've seen major problems caused to Britain & day-to-day life by flooding, and that's just regular flooding. I'd really hate to see what'd happen if it was central London being hit.

[Arawn]

HAHAHAHAHA

First it was HIV, then it was Killer Bees, then West Nile and Y2K, now the temp is gonna kill us...

HAHAHAHAHAHA

RUN!!! The sky is falling!!!

You fear mongers crack me up.

[Corrina]

-----The study's lead author is James Hansen, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies in New York.

Ooo.....sounds like a nasty fear monger to me, eh?

Also:
And AIDS is still epidemic in many areas of the world which most of us here are lucky not to be living in. And we're also lucky that transmission is relatively difficult, rather than something like, say, airborne.

Quick climate changes can cause all sorts of problems, not really for the planet, but for the humans living on the planet. It's our survival and adaptation to changes that's the concern, not the planet. The planet will be fine, whatever happens to *us.*

P.S. I bet you wouldn't believe Jor-El, either. :)

[Paragon Kobold]

HAHAHAHAHA

First it was HIV, then it was Killer Bees, then West Nile and Y2K, now the temp is gonna kill us...

Yeah, and nobody ever died from HIV.

[Reverend Smooth]

HAHAHAHAHA

First it was HIV, then it was Killer Bees, then West Nile and Y2K, now the temp is gonna kill us...

HAHAHAHAHAHA

RUN!!! The sky is falling!!!

You fear mongers crack me up.

I'm sure you'd laugh in the faces of Indonesians and Indians whose land is currently underwater because of rising sea levels, too, right?

The fact that they have to put their houses on stilts now isn't due to climate change, it's just fear-mongering!

[Charles RB]

First it was HIV

Which did kill a lot people and continues to kill a lot of people, being a severe epidemic in many developing nations.

Y2K

Which wasn't a problem because it was identified as a potential problem and sorted out beforehand.

Not the best examples you could've used.

[Arawn]

Oh don't forget the Bird Flu Pandemic...riots over penacilin and all that

Mad Cows Disease....No more cows everyone will have to eat horses and goats AHHH

Climate shifts have always happenned,

The graph of scary death behind Al Gore in his fictional movie left out the information about it's 18% margin of error. Strange how nobody wants to point that out.

Or how his promise of a 20 foot rise in sea level if the greenland ice melts is actually only a.... 18-22 INCH rise.

But facts wouldn't scare up grant money.

As for Nasa after Armegedon came out Nasa went on record saying an asteroid could hit Earth and kill everyone, they even had charts and tables and timelines...What happenned? They got more funding, money to watch the sky, money to test possible defenses, money to hire new people to think up new solutions...

Now it is happenning again. And as long as science is funded by poloticians they will continue to jump on the fear wagon because thats where the money is.

[the4thpip]

HAHAHAHAHA

First it was HIV, then it was Killer Bees, then West Nile and Y2K, now the temp is gonna kill us...

HAHAHAHAHAHA

RUN!!! The sky is falling!!!

You fear mongers crack me up.

Please go play in traffic. The planet's survival might be more likely without you around.

Pip

Chairman of his local AIDS charity

[Charles RB]

As for Nasa after Armegedon came out Nasa went on record saying an asteroid could hit Earth and kill everyone

Which it could. And has in the past (and not that far back in it; see the devastation in Tunguska in the early 20th). And in June 2002, one capable of devastating 2000 square kilometres almost did hit the planet and nobody noticed until three days later.

On top of which, currently there isn't enough funding or equipment to spot everything capable of hitting Earth.

So again - not a good example to use of making people afraid of a non-issue.

[Buzz Dixon]

A couple of decades ago a volcano erupted in the Philippines which was reported to have pumped more waste heat and pollutants into the atmosphere than all of humanity in it's entire 3+ million year existence.

One volcano, and not a particularly big one, either.

We are pikers compared to Mama Nature herself.

There is strong evidence our planetary temperatures are correlated to solar activity, hence rising temperatures on Mars and Jupiter.

If sea levels rise by 3 feet (i.e., all the polar ice melts), a lot of low lying areas will be submerged. Conversely, areas now under ice and/or locked in permafrost will open up to human agriculture. End result: Net gain in habitable living space, plus more habitats for sea life to flourish in.

In the long run, melting the polar caps and raising the surface temperature to the point where it's as hot as in the days of the dinosaurs might be a good thing: More plants growing and providing more carbon dioxide/oxygen cycling, not to mention more food for humans and animals.

BTW, those freakish killer weather patterns predicted over the last decade or so? Didn't happen; the over all hurricane/typhoon count has actually been down.

It is the height of human hubris to assume we affect the planet's temperature as much as a fly affects the velocity of a speeding semi-truck when it splatters on the windshield.

[Crowley]

HAHAHAHAHA

First it was HIV, then it was Killer Bees, then West Nile and Y2K, now the temp is gonna kill us...

HAHAHAHAHAHA

RUN!!! The sky is falling!!!

You fear mongers crack me up.

AIDS is slowly managing to wipe out an entire continent...

But honestly Arawn, we've all done this dance with you before... you don't have any facts to back up any of your opinions and your debate technique is deeply lacking.

Please read up before you attempt to talk with adults.