"We Are Going to Hit Iran. Bigtime" -- An Intriguing Article

[Dry Observer]

Edit: Hmph. After sitting around prominently for a couple days on Daily Kos, Kos finally pointed out that the following article turns out to be bogus. Although apparently the following quote from the Times of London (http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/090207A.shtml) is not:
"The Pentagon has drawn up plans for massive airstrikes against 1,200 targets in Iran, designed to annihilate the Iranians' military capability in three days, according to a national security expert.

"Alexis Debat, director of terrorism and national security at the Nixon Center, said last week that US military planners were not preparing for "pinprick strikes" against Iran's nuclear facilities. "They're about taking out the entire Iranian military," he said.

"Debat was speaking at a meeting organised by The National Interest, a conservative foreign policy journal. He told The Sunday Times that the US military had concluded: "Whether you go for pinprick strikes or all-out military action, the reaction from the Iranians will be the same." It was, he added, a "very legitimate strategic calculus"."


Still, I admit the original fake article irritates me -- there's enough genuine dangers out there, you don't need to make up new ones.

ANd I'm still serious about people needing a plan in case of a major oil/energy shortage, though. Most people haven't got a chance if gas suddenly became unavailable or exorbitantly expensive, and yet many people could get by just fine with only a few preparations.


I wondered if the rest of you would find this article (http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/9/1/183018/1527) as intriguing as I did.

by Maccabee
<Discredited article snipped>

[SUPERECWFAN1]

Wooo hooooo the march to Armegeddon has BEGUN ! Soon we'll see the end of the world. It should be cool. :p

[Kevinroc]

This is really scary. At this point it should be extremely accurate to point out that the Bush administration doesn't think one iota about the consequences of their actions and just does whatever the hell they feel like. This isn't going to keep America safe. This is going to endanger America. This is going to endanger the safety of the entire world. We're going to have more terrorist attacks on this country and the rest of the world will think we had it coming. That is what is truly terrifying.

[Dry Observer]

I don't want to get into the politics of this, Kevin, but seriously, if we launch an attack on Iran, the first thing that's apt to happen is a shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz. Well, aside from supersonic Sunburn missles being fired at our carriers in the Gulf, an Iranian army assault on our forces in Iraq, and the possible destruction of the major Saudi oil refineries.

But, to cut a long story short, we're likely to feel the hit in terms of a sudden cutoff in the world's major oil supplies. Which means that if you haven't got a plan for a major oil crash, now would be a good time to get one.

Actually, anytime would be a good time, but a relatively imminent, full-scale air assault on Iran would make the issue particularly pressing.

Obviously, the future is unpredictable, and it's always possible that something will happen to interfere with such a plan, if one is indeed in the offing. But given the other potential vulnerabilities in the world's trade links and energy supplies, having a "worst-case" contingency plan would seem to be a good idea.

Warm greetings,
Ralph

[Samuel Catalino]

All I have to say is if Israel does not want Iran to have nukes, let them take care of it. Leave the United States out of it.

I, for one would like to have the U.S. completely disengage from that part of the world and concentrate on our borders and mind our own business for a change.

Of course, IMHO.

[Alex L]

The fact that they have plans does not in and of itself pose a great concern.

As someone else pointed out, once upon a time, the United States military/intelligence complex have strategies to invade anywhere from Iran to Canada to Micronesia just sitting around in the file cabinet. It's what they do.

The concern is if they actually want to attack, which from the short snippet provided doesn't sound like something they want to do -- just some papers for in case something happens and we're at war tomorrow. If that happens, we've got a battle plan ready to go.

[Dry Observer]

Yes, I agree, Alex. There's enough stuff to be worried about in the world right now without making up new problems. For example, did you know there are reports that the Saudi "superfield" Ghawar has already peaked, and is now steadily declining in production? Or that documentation has come to light in the last couple of years indicating that Kuwaiti oil reserves are only half of what their government was claiming? Or that Shell got into a great deal of legal and financial trouble for greatly exaggerating their own reserves in order to keep up stock prices? All of this is going on as world demand for oil keeps climbing -- not just in the U.S., but in China and India as well.

Don't get me wrong -- I was very happy to find out that the "Iran War in a month or two" rumor was (hopefully) inaccurate. But we're apt to have an oil crash start ramping up in the next two or three years, if not sooner, if we don't get away from our dependence on fossil fuels quickly. And most people have no plans at all for such a contingency.

Ironically, the more people do to conserve energy and/or shift over to renewable sources, the longer it will be before such a disaster comes to pass. But in the meantime, consider -- how much of your food is shipped over great distances to get to nearby stores? Is your water ultimately supplied by pumps rather than gravity? (In most places outside of New York City, probably yes.) How many people live near you who could not get by without a steady supply of one or more drugs? (Remember to count all insulin-dependent diabetics.)

Where will you get fuel from, if it's no longer cost-effective or even possible to ship gasoline or diesel fuel out to where you live? If you can't get affordable fuel, how will you get to work? Or school? Or to the grocery store?

The above lists just some of the immediate effects of a major oil crash, but other major threats such as a pandemic or serious global warming disruptions would have similar impacts, along with other problems all their own. Experts roughly estimate a likelihood of pandemic at 15% within the next several years or so. (I can't remember if that was within a five-year or five-to-ten-year timeframe -- see the Nobel Laureate and his experts during their interview on Charlie Rose. (PBS))

So there's plenty to be concerned about. The good news (or the sad reality) is that many of these problems could be greatly eased by planning and investments that would save typical individuals and organizations a lot of money in the long run anyway. But most people aren't making those choices.

Believe me when I say I'm relieved about a U.S.-Iran War not starting (hopefully) in the next few months. I've gotten used to the idea that I have a limited time horizon to make further preparations for myself, the people I care about and my immediate region. But a one-to-three-month possible deadline was really a killer.

[Magneto_X]

I'm not surprised.

What's really frightening is that the 2 top Dem pres candidates are on board with invading Iran (Hilary, Obama).

No matter which party becomes the next president (my guess is Hilary ---- she'll make the current Dem controlled congress look good if she does this & set the party back credibility wise. If only Boxer were in the race!) America's hitting Iran. :(

[Magneto_X]

I don't want to get into the politics of this, Kevin, but seriously, if we launch an attack on Iran, the first thing that's apt to happen is a shutdown of the Straits of Hormuz. Well, aside from supersonic Sunburn missles being fired at our carriers in the Gulf, an Iranian army assault on our forces in Iraq, and the possible destruction of the major Saudi oil refineries.

But, to cut a long story short, we're likely to feel the hit in terms of a sudden cutoff in the world's major oil supplies. Which means that if you haven't got a plan for a major oil crash, now would be a good time to get one.

Actually, anytime would be a good time, but a relatively imminent, full-scale air assault on Iran would make the issue particularly pressing.

Obviously, the future is unpredictable, and it's always possible that something will happen to interfere with such a plan, if one is indeed in the offing. But given the other potential vulnerabilities in the world's trade links and energy supplies, having a "worst-case" contingency plan would seem to be a good idea.

Warm greetings,
Ralph

Don't forget China *and* Russia will get involved.

WW III here we come.

Kevinroc:

The G.O.P (Rove, the Bush family, Rumsfeld, Cheney etc) big dogs don't give a shit about America. They're heading straight to Paraquay the second it looks like the heat's getting to hot in America.

[The Xenos]

The fact that they have plans does not in and of itself pose a great concern.

As someone else pointed out, once upon a time, the United States military/intelligence complex have strategies to invade anywhere from Iran to Canada to Micronesia just sitting around in the file cabinet. It's what they do.

The concern is if they actually want to attack, which from the short snippet provided doesn't sound like something they want to do -- just some papers for in case something happens and we're at war tomorrow. If that happens, we've got a battle plan ready to go.

My dad worked for.. some part of the government back in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. He bounced around a bit. He even worked at the Pentagon as well as NASA. He has maps of Iran in the house, now declassified and outdated if they were ever quite classified. He said he worked on strategy for invading Iran as well as dozens of other scenarios. Mind you, this was back when the Shah was in power. He also has even seen scenarios of if the Russians decided to start WWIII and invade western Europe.

So, yes, the government and military has plans for everything and tries to be prepared for everything.

(Well, it seems everything except for if a handful of hijackers took over commercial airliners and flew them into the twin towers and Pentagon. How convenient ... but let's not go there.)

[Kevinroc]

Kevinroc:

The G.O.P (Rove, the Bush family, Rumsfeld, Cheney etc) big dogs don't give a shit about America. They're heading straight to Paraquay the second it looks like the heat's getting to hot in America.

I think that should be fairly obvious at this point. All they care about are their rich buddies, not the average American.

Edit: That's the reason so many people are worried about the possibility of invading Iran. We don't have a president that understands the responsibilities that come with the job.

[Magneto_X]

I think that should be fairly obvious at this point. All they care about are their rich buddies, not the average American.

Edit: That's the reason so many people are worried about the possibility of invading Iran. We don't have a president that understands the responsibilities that come with the job.

I bet he understands, he just knows he's not going to suffer the consequences.

Of course Dubya is just along for the ride. It's the people pulling his strings who are the one doing the damage to the country.

[Magneto_X]

My dad worked for.. some part of the government back in the 60s, 70s, and 80s. He bounced around a bit. He even worked at the Pentagon as well as NASA. He has maps of Iran in the house, now declassified and outdated if they were ever quite classified. He said he worked on strategy for invading Iran as well as dozens of other scenarios. Mind you, this was back when the Shah was in power. He also has even seen scenarios of if the Russians decided to start WWIII and invade western Europe.

So, yes, the government and military has plans for everything and tries to be prepared for everything.

(Well, it seems everything except for if a handful of hijackers took over commercial airliners and flew them into the twin towers and Pentagon. How convenient ... but let's not go there.)

The difference is back then I don't think the government was this insane.

Strangely enough it did have the same players when your father was around (Cheney, Rumsfeld, the Bush family).

[The Xenos]

Though at least even with the first Gulf War under Bush Sr's administration we had him and people like Powell to keep Rumsfeld and Cheney at bay. Now it's those idiots running the show.

[Crowley]

Starting a war on multiple fronts is always a really clever idea...

[Magneto_X]

Starting a war on multiple fronts is always a really clever idea...

Especially when your army is already at breaking point.

The soldiers can't even keep Iraq contained. Iran is a hundred times more difficult even if they *win* the war (which aint gonna happen).

If this war does start I bet this will be the first time the American government uses hydrogen and atomic bombs on another nation after WW II.

Which is going to make the situation even *worse* with both China and Russia involved. Hell, I think France gets oil from Iran and they've got nuclear capacity.

That's *3* big nations with nukes that will be pissed off the bat if Iran is invaded. :eek:

[Crowley]

That's why I started the Impeach Bush and Cheney thread... they need to go before the cause more death...