2006-07 MLB Offseason Thread

[Lone Ranger]

Although I am sure he'll take a lot of heat here in Toronto for not signing either Lilly or Meche, I am actually very happy that JP Ricciardi did not throw big number long-term deals at either Meche or Lilly. I can't believe we now live in a world where a #3 or #4 starter is making $10 Million + per year.

How many more wins, how much lower a WHIP, will these guys really have than some Triple A kid? Lilly had a WHIP of 1.43 but somehow won 15 games. Casey Janssen's WHIP was 1.32 but was 6-10 on the year. I say give the ball to Hanssen and let the Cubs pay Lilly.


As it stands - I like Halladay, Burnett and Chacin as a 1,2,3 and hopefully a couple of the younger kids can provide a 4.50-5.00 ERA for $600,000 at the #4 and #5 spots. I am glad we won't be paying $10 Million for someone to keep us in the game.

We've already tied up a lot of buck in Halladay, Burnett and Ryan. We need to save some for trying to keep Wells or replacing him.

[Ryan Day]

I would have liked to see Lilly come back to Toronto, but it's not hugely disappointing. I suspect Cubs fans will get four years of the same thing we did: Alternating starts of brilliance and totaly cluelessness.

Meche is a guy who still has a lot of potential, and could break out, but for $11 million a year? Egads.

[Matthew E]

I sort of agree. But if the Jays want to get anything done in '07, they do need to add another good starter. I've run into suggestions that they should take the Meche-and-Lilly money and put it all towards Zito or Schmidt. Well, Schmidt's gone, but Zito remains... I wouldn't be opposed to it.

[Lone Ranger]

I sort of agree. But if the Jays want to get anything done in '07, they do need to add another good starter. I've run into suggestions that they should take the Meche-and-Lilly money and put it all towards Zito or Schmidt. Well, Schmidt's gone, but Zito remains... I wouldn't be opposed to it.

Agreed

Zito has the pedigree and is likely worth the money. I'd go for it.

The kind of money that is being thrown at Lilly & Meche, however, is crazy. Suddenly, JP looks like a genius for locking up Burnett and Ryan to long term deals in last year's market. This year's market is super inflated.


Toronto's defence up the middle isn't great (Zaun & ? behind the plate, Hill & Clayton as 2B and SS, only Wells is stellar and his future in TO is cloudy). That might become a factor with pitcher's making decisions. A small factor, but it may come into the equation.

[Matthew E]

Actually I think Hill is a very good glove at second. He's had problems at short, but I've been very impressed with him at second ever since he filled in for an injured Hudson at the end of '05.

[Punchy]

Dodgers pick up Luiz Gonzalez, I've always liked him. I like what the Dodgers are doing ever since the bonehead Pierre signing. They still need pitching though.

[Ryan Day]

Bloody hell: Apparently the Gil Meche deal is for $55 million over 5 years.

Is anyone surprised that Kansas has one .500+ record in the last 12 years.

[Lone Ranger]

Actually I think Hill is a very good glove at second. He's had problems at short, but I've been very impressed with him at second ever since he filled in for an injured Hudson at the end of '05.

I think he's pretty good, too - and I am very happy that he's not being moved to short.

The Clayton signing is a bit of a desperation move, but it's better than keeping an automatic out like John Macdonald in the lineup.

[Brian Cronin]

The Gil Meche deal is high-larious.

Oh, and it's funny to see how Carl Pavano is practically a BARGAIN now. :)

-Brian

[Matthew E]

The Gil Meche deal is high-larious.

Oh, and it's funny to see how Carl Pavano is practically a BARGAIN now. :)

-Brian

I wouldn't say that. I'm getting a lot less money than Pavano is, in return for not pitching for the Yankees.

[Sheldon]

I think he's pretty good, too - and I am very happy that he's not being moved to short.

The Clayton signing is a bit of a desperation move, but it's better than keeping an automatic out like John Macdonald in the lineup.
Part of me dreams that they could trade Vernon Wells for Michael Young, that would take care of the SS position....but then again....they'd probably have to give up more than just Vernon to get him.

[moebius]

Pettite signed a 1-year deal with NY with an option for a 2nd.

Welcome back, Andy. Can we get rid of Pavano now?

[Valmore]

Andy Pettitte is really beginning to sound like a broken record.

Three years ago, he left for Houston because the Yankees didn't show him respect.

Now, he's leaving Houston because the Astros didn't show him respect.

It's about the cash, Andy. Stop bullshitting and say, "I got 4 million dollars more and an optional second year to go back to the Yankees, so I took it."

[moebius]

Andy Pettitte is really beginning to sound like a broken record.

Three years ago, he left for Houston because the Yankees didn't show him respect.

Now, he's leaving Houston because the Astros didn't show him respect.

It's about the cash, Andy. Stop bullshitting and say, "I got 4 million dollars more and an optional second year to go back to the Yankees, so I took it."

DUDE...maybe he's just sensitive.

[Valmore]

DUDE...maybe he's just sensitive.

Him and A-Rod can have tea together then! :D

[Punchy]

You guys aren't going to believe this. I'm a musician and I'm currently doing a gig in a really hoity-toity type cabaret club on the Upper East Side in New York City.

Tonight, by TOTAL coincidence BOTH Brian Cashman and Tim Purpura (Astros GM) were at the show. It's a really small place. Afterwards the two of them were talking for a while. I would've LOVED to have been a fly on the wall for that conversation.

Cashman was a really nice guy. He told me, "you're great, I wish I could do what you do." I guess he doesn't realize how much less money he'd have if he did what I did. He also said he'd come back which is cool.

[Brian Cronin]

Andy Pettitte is really beginning to sound like a broken record.

Three years ago, he left for Houston because the Yankees didn't show him respect.

Now, he's leaving Houston because the Astros didn't show him respect.

It's about the cash, Andy. Stop bullshitting and say, "I got 4 million dollars more and an optional second year to go back to the Yankees, so I took it."

Professional athletes take money offers AS signs of respect.

-Brian

[Brian Cronin]

You guys aren't going to believe this. I'm a musician and I'm currently doing a gig in a really hoity-toity type cabaret club on the Upper East Side in New York City.

Tonight, by TOTAL coincidence BOTH Brian Cashman and Tim Purpura (Astros GM) were at the show. It's a really small place. Afterwards the two of them were talking for a while. I would've LOVED to have been a fly on the wall for that conversation.

Cashman was a really nice guy. He told me, "you're great, I wish I could do what you do." I guess he doesn't realize how much less money he'd have if he did what I did. He also said he'd come back which is cool.

I still say it would have been cooler if they started fighting.

-Brian

[Gingold]

Pettite returning to the Yankees is an early Christmas present. I hate him so much; it's just beautiful to see him back where he belongs. If only Paul O'Neil could unretire.

[Valmore]

You guys aren't going to believe this. I'm a musician and I'm currently doing a gig in a really hoity-toity type cabaret club on the Upper East Side in New York City.

Tonight, by TOTAL coincidence BOTH Brian Cashman and Tim Purpura (Astros GM) were at the show. It's a really small place. Afterwards the two of them were talking for a while. I would've LOVED to have been a fly on the wall for that conversation.

Cashman was a really nice guy. He told me, "you're great, I wish I could do what you do." I guess he doesn't realize how much less money he'd have if he did what I did. He also said he'd come back which is cool.

But I bet you could get more chicks playing jazz with a bass then he does signing jocks.

If you weren't married, that is.

[moebius]

But I bet you could get more chicks playing jazz with a bass then he does signing jocks.

If you weren't married, that is.


Not if Jeter is contractually obligated to throw you a bone every Quarter.

[Valmore]

Not if Jeter is contractually obligated to throw you a bone every Quarter.

Like Jeter would led something like that slip into his contract.

Sure, he let Cashman have Mariah when he was done with her, but that was years ago.

[moebius]

Sure, he let Cashman have Mariah when he was done with her, but that was years ago.


"I'll make you a star, baby. A star!"

[moebius]

So who has had the best off-season this year? Who's had the worst?

I have to go with:

Best
Dodgers: Picked up good starting pitching for cheap. Lots of good, young talent and enough leftover parts for a big move.
Chicago: Picked up two of the four or five best bats on the market.

Worst
Giants: Didn't get any younger and they still have Barry.
Seattle: A payroll dump that won't result in Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito.
Orioles: These guys are just a joke.
Houston: Lost Pettite, probably lost Clemens, couldn't land Garland, overpaid for a DH in Carlos Lee.

Could Go Either Way:
Boston:
Best Case: They keep Manny, sign Matsuzaka, and JD Drew ($70 million!) has a huge year.
Worst Case: They lose Manny, can't sign Matsuzaka, and JD Drew ($70 million!) stinks up the place.

[Punchy]

that is the good think about the Dodgers moves, they didn't give away their young studs or prospects

[Valmore]

I'm starting to think there's something wrong with Matsuzaka's pitching arm. I mean, all he has to do is pass a physical and he's an instant $10-million a year man, at least. And he won't step on a plane to do it, while Scott Boras is trying to cover up by wanting a deal first, saying a guy who hasn't pitched a single major league inning should be getting a 5-6 year, $100-million deal?

Methinks he's blowing smoke to cover up for damaged goods.

[moebius]

Or the Sox are lowballing him by $50 million.

Basically, Boras wants Zito money for this guy, 6 years, $100 million. The Sox want to subtract the posting fee: 6 years, $60 million.

That's a difference of $40 million. And people are getting on Pettite for taking and extra $2 to go to NY.

These are also Matzusaka's money years; No way does he get $18-20 million yearly as a 34-year old when his contract is up.

I am cautiously optimistic that the Sox will eff this up. Which of course means he'll sign today.

[Punchy]

I thought the Angels were going to make some moves this offseason. Why the hell have they been so quiet?

[Tadhg]

Basically, Boras wants Zito money for this guy, 6 years, $100 million.

Which is ridiculous. He's not a free agent nor is he not a proven commodity, why does he deserve the same money as the top free agent at his position? What other posted player got a deal even approaching market value?

The Sox fucked this up when they bid an obscene amount for his rights. No matter the bid price, they were never going to give this guy fair market value, let alone top market value. The only way to justify the 51 million is to sign a long term contract yet the player will never agree to a long-term contract unless he gets top money.

[Nick Soapdish]

The problem is that Boras has them over a barrel because they've already thrown $50 million his way and if he doesn't sign, they just threw it away.

[moebius]

Which is ridiculous. He's not a free agent nor is he not a proven commodity, why does he deserve the same money as the top free agent at his position? What other posted player got a deal even approaching market value?


That's basically what's wrong with the posting system; it screws over the player.

Right now, the Sox want to pay him $8 million for six years. Which is an insult. That's not even Ted Lily money. Boras wants $11/year for six years. Which is still low.

This guy is a proven commodity. He's the best pitcher in the second best league in the world and worth a shitload of merchendising in Asia. He's so good that five teams were willing to pay over $35 million just to negotiate with him

[Tadhg]

The problem is that Boras has them over a barrel because they've already thrown $50 million his way and if he doesn't sign, they just threw it away.

Not really. Seibu Lions only get the 51 million if Boston signs him, otherwise Boston loses no money.

[Tadhg]

That's basically what's wrong with the posting system; it screws over the player.

There's lots of things wrong with the posting system, and it may be somewhat unfair to the player, that's hardly the primary thing. So what if the posting system doesn't allow him to be a free agent, the dude is currently under contract with the Lions, I don't see any reason for him to expect to be a free agent.


Right now, the Sox want to pay him $8 million for six years. Which is an insult. That's not even Ted Lily money. Boras wants $11/year for six years. Which is still low.

I'm confused. These numbers are vastly different from your earlier post.


This guy is a proven commodity. He's the best pitcher in the second best league in the world and worth a shitload of merchendising in Asia. He's so good that five teams were willing to pay over $35 million just to negotiate with him


I disagree with your first point, will concede the second point, and would like to point out that the third point is irrelevant because Professional sports teams throw money around for stupid shit constantly so a team willing to pay obscene cash doesn't actually prove anything about how good he actually is.

Edit: And while I'll concede the second point because I'm not knowledgeable in the area of Asian merchandising of baseball players, I do have to wonder why Seibu would be on the verge of bankruptcy if he was worth a lot in terms of marketability in Asia.

[moebius]

I'm confused. These numbers are vastly different from your earlier post.

The first numbers were what I had been seeing on ESPN/SI based on statements by the parties and an "educated guess" that the Sox wouldn't pay Matzusaka, the number one free agent pitcher on the market, less than Ted Lilly.

The second figures are what got reported this morning out of the talks btw. the Sox and Boras.


I disagree with your first point, will concede the second point, and would like to point out that the third point is irrelevant because Professional sports teams throw money around for stupid shit constantly so a team willing to pay obscene cash doesn't actually prove anything about how good he actually is.


Who is a better Japanese pitcher than Matzusaka? I don't think you'll see a major league exec or scout who doesn't believe he's instantly the ace or number two on any staff. Not to mention the WBC MVP, a Japan Series winner and a "national treasure" in Japan (according to ESPN). The only worry is that he's put a lot of work on that arm.

[Tadhg]

Who is a better Japanese pitcher than Matzusaka? I don't think you'll see a major league exec or scout who doesn't believe he's instantly the ace or number two on any staff. Not to mention the WBC MVP, a Japan Series winner and a "national treasure" in Japan (according to ESPN). The only worry is that he's put a lot of work on that arm.

I disagree that him being the best Japanese pitcher means that he's a proven commodity.

[Ryan Day]

I don't think there's much question that the best Japanese players make, at the very least, very good MLB players. There are a lot more successes than failures at this point. Matsuzaka is proven in that he's an elite player in a very competitive league that's just a notch or two lower than MLB.

It he was a full free agent, he'd easily get at least $11 million a year.

[Tadhg]

I don't think there's much question that the best Japanese players make, at the very least, very good MLB players.

That is not a given.

[Ryan Day]

How many Japanese stars have not turned into good MLB players? Kaz Matsui is the only one I can think of. As opposed to Hideki Matsui, Tadahito Iguchi, Ichiro Suzuki, Kaz Sasaki, Kenji Johjima, Akinori Otsuka. Kaz Ishii was a bit of a disappointment, I guess. There are can be cultural transition issues, and many players don't make it to MLB until they're on the downward side of their careers.

Good Japanese players are good players. And the great ones carry with them a whole mess of marketing potential.

[moebius]

Well, Hideki Irabu was OK to a dissapointment, while Hideo Nomo was probably a little better than OK.

On the marketability of these players: Chien-Ming Wang , a number 2 starter, is a national hero in Taiwan. I know a lot of Taiwanese and most of them know nothing about baseball, but they do follow Wang and they will go to games at Fenway just to see him pitch. If Matzusaka commands a 80% of that respect in Japan, you're looking at tens of millions in Boston merchendise while he's there.

[Ryan Day]

I left out those two guys because I was considering the current wave of imports, but yeah, Irabu sucked (though more because he got fat and fell apart). Nomo was pretty awesome, though - won ROY, finished top ten in strikeouts 7 times, and at worst he usually put up around 200 league-average innings.

[Davideaux]

I don't think Irabu was awful. He was good for the Yanks when they were when winning all those championships. Over a season, he was average but sometimes he'd pull out a good stretch of games or two.

One Japanese player who did not pan out: Tsuyoshi Shinjo.

[Ryan Day]

Shinjo wasn't much of a player in Japan, either: In his career-best season (the year before he came over to North America), he hit .278 with 28 homers; prior to that, he barely even hit .250.

[moebius]

A preliminary deal has been reached: 6 years, $52 million with incentives to $60 (John Heyman, SI).

[Valmore]

I agree with Tadhg - he's not a proven commodity. His only real exposure has been the World Baseball Classic. He's a proven commodity in Japan, but not in the major leagues. There's no reason to expect the guy to deserve money anywhere near what Barry Zito should be getting.

$10,000,000 a year or so for an relatively unproven pitcher is a boatload of cash. Scott Boras is clearly using a bad comparison to major league pitchers who get 5-6 years at $100 million, because Matsuzaka has yet to throw his first major league pitch. There's no way he deserves anywhere near what Andy Pettitt got, because Pettitt has proven commodity status. (I just want him to admit he did it for the cash - I don't blame him. I just hate that "repspect" crap.)

I do hope they have signed him, if he passes his physical. But not at $15 million a year or more.

[Nick Soapdish]

I don't think there's much question that the best Japanese players make, at the very least, very good MLB players. There are a lot more successes than failures at this point. Matsuzaka is proven in that he's an elite player in a very competitive league that's just a notch or two lower than MLB.

It he was a full free agent, he'd easily get at least $11 million a year.

Except that he's not. I bet that Justin Morneau or Ryan Howard would be making a bit more than $3 million next year if they were free agents. (That's just a guess on what they'll get in arbitration.)

Take out that $53 million that Boston is having to pay on top of what they're paying him and give him ... gosh, a whole $1 M more per year ... $60 M over 5 years and that nets him a nifty $ 7 M over 5 years.

Or reversing it, it means that Boston is paying over $20 M a year to get him.

Since I was wrong about the bargaining fee thing, that puts Boston in a considerably stronger position and makes Boras' job a heckuva lot harder. $6 years/ $52 M sounds like he did an outstanding job.

[Valmore]

Except that he's not. I bet that Justin Morneau or Ryan Howard would be making a bit more than $3 million next year if they were free agents. (That's just a guess on what they'll get in arbitration.)

Take out that $53 million that Boston is having to pay on top of what they're paying him and give him ... gosh, a whole $1 M more per year ... $60 M over 5 years and that nets him a nifty $ 7 M over 5 years.

Or reversing it, it means that Boston is paying over $20 M a year to get him.

Since I was wrong about the bargaining fee thing, that puts Boston in a considerably stronger position and makes Boras' job a heckuva lot harder. $6 years/ $52 M sounds like he did an outstanding job.

Boras did pretty well, but I think Boston ended up getting the better end of it, considering the situation Boras was in.

Matsuzaka isn't due to be a free agent until the end of 2008. That's two years, and so much could happen in the meantime. Next year, Matsuzaka's team might not accept the winning bid to let a team talk to him, and he'd have to return to Japan again. There could be a better market for starting pitchers next season, as compared to a relatively poor one this season. Matsuzaka could undergo Tommy John surgery, tear a wrist, etc.

Meaning Boras could potentially be losing his chance at getting his hot property player signed this season had the deadline passed without Matsuzaki signed on the dotted line. He's hot property this year, but there's no guarantee he's the same hot property come next November.

The bidding system hurt Boras, but frankly, I don't care. Scott Boras has long been a pain in the ass, and the MLB would be better off without him.

[Sheldon]

The Blue Jays have offered Vernon Wells a 7 year 126 Million Dollar (http://x.go.com/cgi/x.pl?goto=http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=2696708&name=FPT-2696708-121319&srvc=sz) contract....

And here I thought they couldn't afford him....I guess they'll find out how much he really likes playing in Canada

[moebius]

Holy Shit.

Giants give Zito 7 years, $126 million. (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-zito122806&prov=yhoo&type=lgns)

Well, he took the most years and the most money. I'd be surprised if he gets a ring, though.

[Brian Cronin]

He may not get a ring, but he has a better chance at having a HOF-caliber career, I think.

Pitching in the NL, he should have a Tom Glavine-esque career.

-Brian

[Beatnikman]

I don't remember the Giants going over 3 years for any pitcher since Brian Sabean took over, and 18 million a year is an awful lot of money, especially for a pitcher.

But, it really seems like if you're going to compete, and your farm system has been lacking for a decade, you have to get a little crazy with the money. I'm certainly glad they gave the money to Zito instead of Schmidt.

This move only gives me so much hope about the Giants' chances in '07, but the rotation now has a decent chance of being pretty dang good for the foreseeable future.

I guess Zito is what Sabean meant when he said they were going to get "younger and more athletic" in the offseason. Although, to be fair, Dave Roberts is several years younger than Moises Alou and Steve Finley.

[moebius]

He may not get a ring, but he has a better chance at having a HOF-caliber career, I think.

Pitching in the NL, he should have a Tom Glavine-esque career.

-Brian

If you mean 300 wins, I don't think that's gonna happen (he needs at least 15/year until he's 41).

It's the biggest contract ever for a pitcher, so I guess it makes sense that he didn't bother to listen to counteroffers.

Wonder what this means for the Randy Johnson trade.

[Valmore]

Holy Shit.

Giants give Zito 7 years, $126 million. (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ti-zito122806&prov=yhoo&type=lgns)

Well, he took the most years and the most money. I'd be surprised if he gets a ring, though.

He won't get a ring, he'll just get PAID. PAID LOTS. And he'll probably see his ERA shrink pitching in the National League.

By the by, I'm almost willing to put down money that Igawa will have a better season than Matsuzaka.

[Brian Cronin]

If you mean 300 wins, I don't think that's gonna happen (he needs at least 15/year until he's 41).

It's the biggest contract ever for a pitcher, so I guess it makes sense that he didn't bother to listen to counteroffers.

Wonder what this means for the Randy Johnson trade.

15 wins a year until he's 41 is incredibly believable.

That's essentially Tom Glavine's career, hence the "Tom Glavine-esque" line. ;)

-Brian

[Punchy]

i hate the giants

[Beatnikman]

i hate the giants

You're gonna hate them even more in June, when Schmit, Nomar, and 90 million dollars are on the DL.

Their lineup isn't going to scare anybody, though.

[moebius]

15 wins a year until he's 41 is incredibly believable.

That's essentially Tom Glavine's career, hence the "Tom Glavine-esque" line. ;)

-Brian

I don't think the problem in that equation is Zito. I think it's the rest of the Giants.

[Valmore]

I don't think the problem in that equation is Zito. I think it's the rest of the Giants.

Well, if Zito can pitch at least 15 shutouts a season without the relievers blowing it for him, the Giants will need to only score a single run per game to get him wins.

Sure, it's not likely...

[Beatnikman]

I don't think the problem in that equation is Zito. I think it's the rest of the Giants.

You must have missed them signing the mighty Rich Aurilia and one of the Fabulous Catching Molinas. Plus they're bringing back Pedro Feliz and Randy Winn! They'll be unstoppable!




Errrr ... maybe you're right.